February 27, 2009

Cause for Concern

Yesterday evening, I ran across some disturbing news. Amid several rumors that new coach Todd Haley was somewhat arrogant, Brian Waters, the all-pro guard for the Kansas City Chiefs has said that he wants out of Kansas City in part due to the treatment he has initially received by the new coach and general manager Scott Pioli. Columnist Jason Whitlock of the Kansas City Star reported that Waters was offended by Pioli's refusal of a meeting. This is especially concerning because Waters is known as a locker room leader. This brought to mind a scout related principle: trustworthiness.

Being trustworthy as a coach and GM should include an acknowledgment that the owner is appointing you as a liason between himself and the players. I grew up adoring the Chiefs' ownership under Lamar Hunt. At the very least, one knew that the players wanted to play for Kansas City because their was so much trust between the front office and the players. I certainly hope that Clark Hunt was able to take that valuable lesson from his father and that the news of Waters' frustration is concerning to him.

It is especially concerning when this spat involves a veteran with a long history of trusting the franchise. If one is being trustworthy of you, it really should not take much to return the favor. I sincerely hope that Pioli and Haley will make a serious effort to establish trust within the organization. Pioli should have learned from Coach Belichick that taking off-the-field issues off the players' backs is essential to a successful team on the field. With such a young team, establishing trust should be one of the first goals of a new administration. While signing veterans like Mike Vrabel to the defensive side show a desire to recruit leaders, nothing is quite as dumb as scaring off the leaders you already have.

The Chiefs are in a great position to vastly improve upon a 2-14 season, but maintaining trustworthiness is a simple first step that should not be overlooked. Just like being trustworthy is the first point in the scout law and the rest are built on it, building trust in an organization is the foundation of a successful performing team.

February 2, 2009

Should've done this, Could've done that

Recently I have noticed a disturbing trend of politicking for Hall of Fame candidates. Specifically in regards to active coaches and players, many people have begun excusing mistakes or mediocrity for feel good stories. The two most recent examples of this are Kurt Warner and the University of Louisville's men's basketball coach Rick Pitino.

This last week during the normal pre-Super Bowl buzz, many commented on Kurt Warner's possibility for the Hall of Fame. A lot of these commentators seemed like they felt that a win in this year's Super Bowl would seal his candidacy for the hall of fame. I respectfully disagree.

I completely agree that Kurt Warner is an exceptionally accomplished postseason quarterback, but he is not a Hall of Fame quarterback for two reasons: inconsistent regular season play over his entire career, and talented surrounding casts in his postseason runs.

For starters, Warner has had more seasons with double digit interceptions than seasons with 20 or more touchdowns. Between 2002 and 2006, he only has one season over 10 touchdowns, and was beat out of three jobs in that stretch. I dare you to find any Hall of Famer that lost three starting spots in the middle of his career. Warner has undoubtedly shown seasons of brilliance, but careers of brilliance are meant for the Hall of Fame.

Some make the case that Warner's exceptional postseason play will put him in the Hall. Isn't it interesting then that in compiling a poll of the top 10 Super Bowl Quarterbacks, Warner was not even on the list. But even in his postseason runs, his supporting casts preclude him from a Hall of Fame run. In 1999, he had two of the premier route running wideouts in the game in Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce and one of the greatest pass catching running backs in Marshall Faulk, not to mention one of the better offensive lines anchored by two pro bowlers in Adam Timmerman and Orlando Pace. Not to mention the threat of Faulk on the ground and a respectable defense on the other side.

In this Super Bowl, Edgerrin James was able to establish a running game and did anyone see how wide open Anquan Boldin was on his 30+ yard completion? How much work did Warner do on the 64 yard touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald to give the Cardinals the lead late in the game? Oh, and what a read he made on the last play of the first half trying to stick the ball through James Harrison as if he was a ghost. The truth is that he is a successful postseason performer, not an elite performer, and not worthy of the Hall of Fame that just kept Chris Carter out on the last ballot.

The case for Pitino is a little different. I do think that Coach Pitino will eventually make the Hall of Fame, but many, like broadcaster Dick Vitale, say that he is worthy of it now. There primary contention is that Coach Pitino would have even more gaudy numbers if he had not gone to coach in the NBA. Many baseball players not in the Hall of Fame like Bob Feller and Ted Williams are said to have been robbed by the onset of World War II. Being drafted into war is a legitimate reason to have less prolific numbers, but being paid to coach in the NBA is a professional decision that Coach Pitino made, and Hall of Fame voters should not give him any lenience for the Hall of Fame.

Both of these people have had incredible influence on their respective sports, but heart warming stories or regrettable professional decisions have no place on a Hall of Fame ballots. If anything in sports matter more than championships, it's the Hall of Fame, and nothing hurts the credibility of the institution like letting undeserving players in. I hope that Hall of Fame voters will maintain the tradition of excellence that makes names like Canton and Cooperstown such an integral part of Americana.

January 27, 2009

Jumping on the Bandwagon

Today I found a rare moment of agreement with ESPN analyst Skip Bayless. On the show First Take, Bayless mentioned an increasing trend of analysts picking the Arizona Cardinals to win the game. Obviously I have no problem with these people saying that they like the Cardinals, but these picks seem to be more sentimental, yet most of the analysts claim that their picks are intellectually based.

One of the popular teams that analysts compare the Cardinals to is last year's champions, the New York Giants. These analysts point out that the Giants went on a late run and ended up winning the Super Bowl against the heavily favored Patriots. While the comparison may look good at the start, these analysts should look at how last year's champions won the championship game, rather than obsessing about the whole run. Most notably, the fact that the New England Patriots brought in a stellar offense and a decent defense. In many ways, the Cardinals are more like the Patriots due to their extremely talented receiving corps. True, the Cardinals defense has improved in the last few weeks, but it is still not a high caliber defense.

One thing that I couldn't help but notice was that the Cardinals allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to score 3 touchdowns in 10 minutes in the NFC Championship game. The key difference between last year's Giants and the Cardinals is the popular maxim "Offense wins games, but defense wins championships". The Giants won last year's Super Bowl because they had a dominant defensive line that could get an incredible pass rush and keep the prolific Patriots offense from ever being successful.

For some reason analysts seem to be ignoring the fact that James Harrison is a freak of a pass rusher. Oh, and Casey Hampton, Lamarr Woodley, and Brett Keisel are no slouches either. The pass rush of the Pittsburgh Steelers is far more dominant than that of the Cardinals, and just like last year's Giants, the Steelers' offense seems to make the key plays at exactly the right time late in games.

There you have it, my pick for Super Bowl XLIII is the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they will be the team most reminiscent of last year's champions, the New York Giants. Enjoy the game.

December 6, 2008

Why the Gators will roll over this Tide

I'm sure most of you know that I favor the Gators in today's game. I'm sure you've heard all kinds of reasons that the Gators will lose, but I'll show you why they have the statistical advantage. I've heard some crazy stuff this week, like Alabama will win because they have won 3 games under 7 points and Florida is 0-1 in games in that window. Nevermind that it is perfectly possible that the SEC Championship is spread by more than 7 points, and we know how impressive Florida is in those games.

But looking at the numbers will prove why the Gators will win. On offense, the Gators outmatch the Tide in almost every statistical category. While the Crimson Tide has the two leading rushers individually, the Gators have rushed for more as a team and have 10 more touchdowns. The pundits have been making a big deal about how electric Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram are, and indeed they are both playmakers, but it will be Florida's depth and diversity that will win out. Florida has speed up the middle, speed on the wings for reverses and Tim Tebow powering his way though the middle.

In the passing game, Florida also leads statistically, but will win because of intangibles. Tebow dominates John Parker Wilson in total yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns, rating, completion percentage, and the all important interceptions thrown. It is this last statistic that points to the difference in the two quarterbacks. Throughout their careers Tebow has led in touchdown-to-interception ratio. The difference on Saturday night will be one mistake, Brandon Spikes will intercept one of Wilson's passes in the first half, and Alabama will not be able to keep scoring with the Gators.

Here's my first official prediction post, but I'm pretty confident on this one. Enjoy the game guys.

November 24, 2008

Apologies and a Prediction

My apologies to the OU football team, who absolutely manhandled the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday. I loved watching the game, and even though I was utterly shocked, I have to say I was happy with the result. I was most impressed by three things: The Sooners ability to dominate both the offensive and defensive lines, the ability to keep their running game going throughout the game, and Sam Bradford's ability to manage the game.

Need proof that the Sooners lines dominated the game? Just look at the difference in rushing yards: OU led Texas Tech in rushing a mere 298 to 45 yards. Pretty nice day at work. The offensive line pummelled the Raiders back frequently leading their running backs to the third level safeties. I had predicted that the offensive line would only get the chance to run block for a drive or two. At the end of the game, the only running play that didn't work was a toss play that DeMarco Murray slipped on trying to cutback.

When Sam Bradford dropped back to pass, the offensive line gave him an eternity to survey the field. Bradford could have worn his uniform to the afterparty it was so clean, it's a miracle the guy even broke a sweat. Not only did the line give Bradford time, they gave him space. Throughout the game, they gave him several lanes to throw into, and Bradford definitely took advantage throwing for 304 yards and four touchdowns.

On the defensive line OU was able to get pressure without bringing too many blitzes, and when they did put the pressure on, it got to Harrell for 3 sacks. Most importantly, the entire defense tackled well. Texas Tech has made a living all year off screen passes extended into big plays. Holding Michael Crabtree without a touchdown was incredible as well.

And now, time for a prediction: If the Sooners and Florida both get in and win their respective conference title games, their meeting in the national championship could be one of the best games ever. Both teams are on incredibly hot runs and it's hard to see one of them stumbling. If this game is indeed the championship, I certainly won't complain.

November 21, 2008

On the Couch: Week 2

Thank God homework is over! I'm ready to veg on the couch for another weekend, and it's gonna be a good one! Here's On the Couch for week 2:


Saturday: Putting on Team Colors

My Hawkeyes play fellow 7-4 Minnesota for a potential bowl seed this weekend, so I'm wearing Black and Gold tomorrow, but there are tons of great games on Saturday. Here are some of the highlights.

In the noon hour, the Ohio State-Michigan game lacks some of its normal importance. But if Michigan State beats Penn State, it's really important that the Buckeyes, led by a constantly improving Terrell Pryor, secure this win.

Later, things begin to heat up. Boston College at Wake Forest should be a hotly contested game, but I think the Eagles win a nail-biter. The aforementioned Penn State-Michigan State game will hang on the Nittany Lions ability to stop Javon Ringer. If they can, the Rose Bowl is beckoning for 'ole Joe Pa and company. And finally in this time slot, the most likely overlooked matchup of Air Force and TCU. Both teams have competed well in the Mountain West Conference, and both deserve bowl bids, so we'll see which one wants it most.

A little bit later, two more small conference teams match up with #14 BYU coming to #7 Utah in hopes of busting Utah's hopes of crashing the BCS. Some have mentioned BYU throwing this game for the conference. Don't count on it, this team will gut it out against the Utes, and I think Max Hall leads the Cougars to the upset.

In addition to the Big East showdown between Pittsburgh and Cincinatti, the night is highlighted by the game we have all been anticipating for two weeks now...the shootout in Norman as the Red Raiders draw the Sooners on their way to the Big 12 Championship. Tackling will be the key for the Sooners, but I think that the Raiders prevail because the Sooners haven't proven that they can be a pass only team like the Raiders have. Hint to Coach Stoops: If you have the choice, receive and take advantage of your run game early, because once Harrell gets the ball the game will revert to passing.


Sunday: Team Colors again!

Ok. So there's not much to get excited about as a Chiefs fan this year. Yes I know that Tyler Thigpen has been more consistent than we could have dreamed, but let's not get hasty. Look at Derek Anderson this year for proof, and the Chiefs don't have a Brady Quinn waiting in the wings. But Sunday's action will far exceed anything the Chiefs will do this weekend.

The noon hour is headed by the Jets-Titans matchup that will give the improved Jets defensive line its tallest task of the year in controlling both Chris Johnson and Lendale White. Johnson hasn't had great weeks the last couple weeks, but if he can get out to the edge, he may have a big game. New England at Miami is also an intriguing matchup during the noon hour and the Eagles need a win against the Ravens to stay alive in the NFC East.

Two great games follow in the 3 o'clock hour with the New York Football Giants visiting the Arizona Cardinals and the Atlanta Falcons trying to avenge their first home loss against the division leading Carolina Panthers.

Sunday Night will not disappoint as rivals San Diego and Indianapolisget the nod for Game of the Weekend. Both teams are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt. Although the game is probably more critical for San Diego, Indianapolis has an uphill climb in its division as well.

Well sports fans! That's the weekend for you... Enjoy!

November 18, 2008

Scrappy

Dustin Pedroia was given the AL MVP earlier today. Naturally, as a Red Sox fan I was happy, but I wasn't originally going to write anything about him, 'til I thought of how perfectly Pedroia's play goes with the scout oath's opening line..."On my honor I will do my best".

This is possibly the most contested choice of all the postseason awards, but I don't mean this post to be a Red Sox fan's defense of his beloved shortstop. Instead I just want to simply highlight some of the things that make Pedroia a great player from a scouter's perspective.

There is a common perception that people "do their best" because they can't do things well. In some cases this is true. One of the greatest things I think I ever learned in scouts was that my "best" was always more than expected and would always lead me to success. Pedroia is the perfect example of this. His position as a leader on his team is mainly due to the constant effort he provides. And this effort has paid off in production as well.

Pedroia proves that effort is essential to leadership. So many times leadership is perceived as delegation, and while leaders inevitably have to be able to delegate, the ability to delegate or the charisma to convince someone else to do the work will always fall short. There is something endearing in public figures that seem to put so much effort into whatever they do, and Pedroia is rightly considered one of the best role models for young athletes.

Finally, a note on the general use of the phrase "do your best". Like the words "I love you," this phrase can be easily overused. Pedroia's effort has separated him from most others in baseball, but he also makes a great effort to better his team off the field. And if you don't believe it's about the team, consider that he gave back his last two years of college scholarship at Arizona State, so that his coach could recruit more pitching prospects (oh by the way, he started every game and batted .384 overall), according to a Sept. 28th article in the Boston Globe. As opposed to athletes like ex-footballer Tiki Barber or Pedroia's ex-teammate Manny Ramirez, Pedroia has shown that he will always be working toward the success of the team.

Minding Your Own Business

Many of you may have seen President-elect Barack Obama's interview on 60 minutes Sunday. Many of you also know that I voted for John McCain. Still, I truly wish our future President the best. Interestingly, the topic of the BCS system arose during Sunday's conversation and surprisingly the future President dived right into an answer.

I will be one of the first to advocate a playoff system in college football, and I agree with President-elect Obama that it would be the ideal situation. But respectfully, isn't that what conference commissioners and school presidents are supposed to decide. I was 100% supportive of the Mitchell Report to clean up baseball, but the BCS system is hardly ruining the entire game of college football as steroids were ruining America's favorite pastime.

I was irritated that the future President said in regards to a playoff system"That [he] would throw [his] weight around a little bit." to make it happen. Why?! What possible need does the President have in addressing a controversial, but functional system for college athletics when the country he is about to govern is in two wars, has a multiple trillion dollar deficit, and is facing one of the worst economic crises in recent history. I just can't comprehend why the President feels that he should get involved in the system.

Furthermore, the eight team playoff system would not be perfect either. What if there are three undefeated teams and six one loss teams at the end of the season? Is there any difference in slighting the number 3 ranked team a chance at a National Championship under the current system than slighting the number 9 team a chance at a playoff? The simple fact is that no system is going to be perfect. Even the College Basketball 65 team bracket has controversy about who gets in and how the teams are seeded, but that doesn't make it reasonable for the federal government to intrude on the process.

President-elect Obama also mentioned shortening the regular season by a game or two. In a lot of cases, certainly last year and most likely this year, the teams playing for the National Championship will most likely be decided in the last two weeks of the season. Why would you shorten the regular season when every game is already important? Furthermore, many of the proposed playoff systems still include most of the lesser bowls, and only change the five BCS bowls. Shortening the regular season would hurt many of the middle-of-the-road teams who are barely bowl-eligible with 6 wins. Many of the teams playing in the lesser bowls (which also bring money to college football) may win their 6th game during the last week of the current season. It only hurts the system to take out games from the season.

While I agree that the primary reason that conference commissioners want to keep the bowl system is because of the revenue generated by the events, why not use that money more productively, perhaps to pay the athletes who earn these schools so much money? Why not give them a cut of jersey profits? Why not come up with a base salary instead of not allowing them to have anything other than a free ride to school? To me these are much more constructive ways of dealing with college football, because they deal with the broader issues with college athletics as a whole. But the people that should be making these decisions are the conference commissioners and the NCAA, not the country's President or Congress.

November 17, 2008

Loyal

I've always liked Jeff Fisher as a coach, and the success of his team this year shouldn't be as big of a surprise as it is being treated, but beyond the playcalling, his loyalty to his team is what makes him such a great coach.

As a scout, I always pledged to be loyal, and one of the greatest examples for other scouts is Jeff Fisher. As the second point in the scout law, loyalty has been a center point of scouting for a long time. Most of the time scouts always approach loyalty as a duty to one's country, but Fisher displays the importance of being loyal to one's employers and to one's employees.

I have always been struck by coaches who stick with a team. The other week, the commentators on the Bears-Titans game mentioned how Fisher had stuck with the Titans franchise as the interim head coach during the move to Nashville even though his office was a trailer and the team did not have its own stadium. Still, Fisher stuck through it and has achieved one of the better records for an interim coach moving to a permanent position. I've always admired people in my life who have been able to stay with a company for a long time and Fisher's accomplishments are quite admirable.

My favorite display of Jeff Fisher's loyalty is how he runs out on the field to check on any injured player. Today a special teams player was injured, and Fisher was out just as the training staff was coming to the player's attention. It was amazing, because this kid hardly ever plays, but Fisher still runs out to make sure he's ok. I've always liked my good bosses, and I'm sure that Coach Fisher's players perform to their highest potential because of his loyalty.

As long as Fisher is around, you really can't count the Titans out of the playoff hunt. And I'm convinced that everyone could take a few life tips from this coach.

November 14, 2008

ON THE COUCH: WEEK 1

This week I am introducing a new weekly post: On the Couch. This will highlight the weekend's sporting events and rate each day's total worth to fellow sports fans. My ranking system will include three tiers. First, falling asleep obviously means a lousy day of sports watching; secondly, laying back with a beer will signify an average day, and finally putting on the team colors means a great day in sports.

So without further ado: this week's edition of On the Couch

Saturday: Falling asleep (this will be a long nap)

Usually, there is at least one great matchup in the college football season, especially this late in the year, but I am so bored with this week's matchups. Truthfully the best game may be North Carolina at Maryland because of its ACC implications.

Not a single one of the 11:oo games is worth watching, and the Tar Heels and Terps may be worth skipping too at 2:30. Even the night cap is lowlighted by a Boston College-Florida State matchup, although the recent suspension of 5 FSU wide receivers could make that a closer game.
I've pretty much concluded that Saturday will be my homework day, because the normal routine isn't really worth it.

Sunday: Laying back with a beer

I'm definitely more excited about Sunday's offerings on the tube. In addition to Jimmie Johnson probably wrapping up his third NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship in as many years, there are several great football matchups. I'm predicting some good old fashioned blowouts, and a few hard fought divisional games that have important momentum swings tied to their outcomes.

We'll start with the important divisional games and other games that will affect division leaders.

-Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: I can't wait to see how the Packers defense does against breakout rookie running back Matt Forte, and you know that both teams will leave it all out on the field this week for a share of the lead in the NFC North
-Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: Yes, I am aware that the Texans have laid clunkers several times this year, but they have also shown flashes of brilliance, and led the Colts earlier this year before the epic collapse of Sage Rosenfels in a 3 minute span. Steve Slaton is dangerous, but I expect Bob Sanders will do just enough to give Indy a solid hold on second place in the AFC South, and put them well on their way to a wild card berth.
-Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Tough, scrappy game that will make your head hurt just watching it, but the Titans are too strong against the run for the Jaguars to win this game. Amazing stat of the day for the Titans: they have outscored their opponents nearly two-to-one with a 220-117 points for-and-against ratio. If Kerry Collins keeps throwing and Chris Johnson is able to get things restarted after a down game last week (darn him, ruined my fantasy week), this could turn into a blowout, but expect the league to be handing out fines for rough hits on Monday.
-Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: Clinton Portis may be out, but the Cowboys have more questions than a Peter Jennings round of Jeopardy. The Cowboys running game may be the difference this week in a must win game for America's favorite team.
-San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers: Both of these teams are fighting for first place in their divisions. Antonio Cromartie will have to break out of his slump and linebacker Shaun Phillips has to get some pressure on Ben Roethlisberger for the Chargers to pull this one off in Pittsburgh.

There could also be some huge blowouts this week.

-New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs: As improved as Tyler Thigpen is at quarterback, Drew Brees will have a field day against the cornerback duo of Maurice Leggett and Brandon Carr. Could he throw for 500 yards? Maybe.
-Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: No explanation needed, I'm predicting 34-7 at half.
-Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati is improving, but the Eagles must be peaved about Monday's loss to the Giants. Brian Westbrook will have a big day as the Eagles get back to their screen plays against a weak defense.
-Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Somewhere Dan Marino is smiling because people are again saying that the Dolphins will blowout an opponent. But the Raiders offense had -2 TOTAL yards of offense in the first half last week, so don't get too excited about the comeback. Dolphins fans can enjoy this one though.

And finally the Game of the Weekend:
-Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: Both need the win to maintain a share of the lead in their respective divisions. Matt Ryan got my pro-bowl vote and has been impressive as a rookie, while Denver is battling injuries and a lack of the running game that is almost unheard of on a Mike Shanahan Broncos team. I've got the Falcons because of the home-field advantage where they have been perfect thus far this season.

Enjoy the weekend everyone!