Risk/Reward

When I first heard that the Chiefs had selected Dontari Poe as their 1st round draft pick last night. I was terribly disappointed. I agreed with all the critics that a talented workout freak that had underperformed in college against mediocre (at best) talent was not worth the number 11 pick in the draft. At #11, you should still have near-lock picks available. And for the Chiefs last night, one was even available in David DeCastro, the guard from Stanford.
I think there are two great reasons why the Chiefs didn't actually lose on this pick. First, the new draft salary structure from the new collective bargaining agreement means we're paying WAY less for Poe than we would have a few years ago. I know many Kansas City fans are tired of being tied to a defensive lineman's fate, as was the case with Ryan Sims, and until recently with Tyson Jackson. First, the Chiefs quite intelligently restructured Tyson Jackson's contract to reflect his lack of production compared to his enormous salary as the #3 pick under the old draft salary program. This was huge, and during what will probably be a contract year for Jackson, you can certainly expect him to be putting forth effort this year. But most importantly, choosing Dontari Poe as the hopeful Haloti Ngata or Vince Wilfork of the Midwest is a risk much easier to take when your franchise's entire financial future is not hanging in the balance. It is a risk much more logically taken when defensive linemen have vastly improved their formerly pedestrian production under the current head coach as well.

The other reason the Poe pick makes a lot of sense is the depth at offensive guard in the draft. It seems as though almost unanimously draft gurus are saying that the Chiefs should have picked DeCastro rather than Poe. I completely agree with them that DeCastro is a sure starter from day 1, but I think the much more glaring need for the Chiefs is at nose tackle. The argument will almost certainly be made that this draft is equally deep at defensive tackle as it is at guard, but that argument ignores the fact that nearly every defensive tackle prospect, except for Poe, was a 4-3 technique tackle, rather than a nose tackle. And in my opinion, they were all glaringly fit for the 4-3 scheme, rather than the Chiefs' 3-4 scheme. Do the Chiefs need to upgrade the guard position of Ryan Lilja? Certainly, but our run defense and ability to remove the quarterback's ability to step up and throw in the pocket on EVERY down was a much more glaring need. Add to that, that prospects like Kelechi Osemele, Cordy Glenn (who also may be able to transition to tackle if we lost Branden Albert), Amini Silatolu, or even Peter Konz, the center from Wisconsin will most likely be available when the Chiefs pick 10th in the second round this evening, and I think the Poe pick is the better choice.

The comparison of this pick to the Tyson Jackson pick that began the Pioli era is unfair and inaccurate. Yes, it is a potential reach for a position of need. But the similarities end there. There isn't nearly as much of our future success tied to Poe's success, our future has not been mortgaged to sign him, and we are still able to get a starting prospect at guard without trading up. The Chiefs scored big two years ago in landing Eric Berry and Jon Asamoah, and I think time will prove them right in selecting Poe and a guard in the second round.